Economics

Permanent URI for this collection

http://196.216.167.205/handle/10628/975

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 45

Oil and economic growth: An econometric analysis.
(Bethany Books, 2001) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The study focuses specifically on the effect of oil exports, non-oil exports and foreign capital inflow on Nigeria‟s economic growth performance. Using the OLSQ regression technique, we generated the relationship between the variables identified above. Relying on selected macroeconomic data for the period 1980 – 2000, the results of the study provides empirical evidence to reinforce the claim that oil exports have contributed more significantly to the growth of the Nigerian economy vis-à-vis other variables that were analysed. The paper recommends, as part of Nigeria‟s strategy for achieving rapid and sustainable economic „miracle‟ the aggressive pursuit of an export-led industrialisation policy
Investigating sources of economic growth by regression methods.
(Bethany Books, 2002) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Impacts of selected macroeconomic variables on the economy of Angola were analysed in this study. Using a combination of simple and multiple regression models, we established the effect of these macroeconomic variables on the economic performance of Angola. Utilising time series data for the period 1978 – 2000, the results of the study indicate that exports undeniably play a critical role in the growth of the Angolan economy. In addition to other policy options, that were put forward, the paper recommends an outward looking industrialisation strategy for the economy of Angola.
Impacts of inflation on Namibian growth: An empirical study.
(Asian Network for Scientific Information (ANSNET), 2004) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The impact of inflation on growth performance through a case study of Namibia is analysed in the article. The methodology involves estimating a general model, which provides for capturing the impact of inflation as well as imported inflation interactively with economic openness on economic growth. The sample period runs from 1991 - 2001. The research found that economic growth reacted in a predictable fashion to changes in the regressors employed in the study. The results obtained from the study also refelects the conventional thinking in the literature that, ceteris paribus, the growth impact of inflation can be counter productive, especially if not controlled. The study recommends appropriate anti-inflationary measures for the Namibian economy. A further study on how to minimize the negative repurcussion of inflation on the economy of Namibia is highly recommended.
The impact of trade on Africa: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe.
(2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The research addresses empirically the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) using Zimbabwe as a laboratory test ground. This research work attempts to provide some evidence in this regard by examining the influence of trade on economic growth in the economy and ascertaining if the regressors utilised are good predictors of growth. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is resorted in order to estimate the specified equations used in the study. The time-series data utilized runs from 1991 to 2003. The results of the study confirm the existence of the export-led growth model in Zimbabwe. In the face of continual instability in its export receipts, we recommend that fundamental economic and political restructuring should be embarked upon in order to address and subsequently reverse the current situation that Zimbabwe finds itself. Finally, it is envisaged that the results arising from this study would be useful to the other economies of Africa, especially in their export drive.
Macroeconomic impact of trade on Namibian growth: An empirical illustration.
(Frontiers in Bioscience., 2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The study analyses the role of trade on the economy of Namibia by considering a different specification of the traditional export growth model. Foreign direct investment is included to capture the potential effect of this variable on growth. Utilising a combination of bivariate and multivariate models, the researcher estimated the relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables used for the study. Macroeconomic data used runs from 1991 to 2001. The results of the study confirm that exports and inward foreign direct investment are critical sources of growth in the Namibian economy. The study concludes by recommending, inter alia, the pursuit of an aggressive and vibrant export industrialization policy for Namibia as well as direction for further research.
The applicability of the short-run Phillips Curve to Namibia.
(Frontiers in Bioscience., 2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
In this research, we invoke linear and logarithmic regression models to empirically test the validity of the Short-run Phillips curve for Namibia by relying on macroeconomic time-series data running from 1991 to 2005.Our results offer some support for the presence of the phenomenon of stagflation in Namibia. This is rather contradictory to the underlying philosophy of the original Phillips curve. In the light of the outcome of the investigation anti-inflation cum unemployment measures are suggested. Further studies focussing on the applicability of the Phillips curve to the economy of Namibia is strongly recommended.
Time-series evidence for export-led growth paradigm: A case study of Zimbabwe.
(Frontiers in Bioscience., 2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The study addresses empirically the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) using Zimbabwe as a case study. This research work attempts to provide some evidence in this regard by examining the influence of trade on economic growth in the economy and ascertaining if the regressors utilised are good predictors of growth. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is resorted in order to estimate the specified equations used in the study. The time-series data utilized runs from 1991 to 2003. The results of the study confirm the existence of the export-led growth model in Zimbabwe. In the face of continual instability in its export receipts, we recommend that fundamental economic and political restructuring should be embarked upon in order to address and subsequently reverse the present situation.
Impacts of trade on SADC economies: Some evidence from Angola.
(2006) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Impacts of selected macroeconomic variables on the economy of Angola are analysed in this study. Using a combination of simple and multiple regression models, we established the effect of these macroeconomic variables on the economic performance of Angola. Utilising time series data for the period 1980 to 2005, the results of the study indicate that exports undeniably play a critical role in the growth of the Angolan economy. In addition to other policy options, that were put forward, the paper recommends an outward looking industrialisation strategy for the economy of Angola, including the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. The direction for further research on the issue under investigation is also strongly recommended.
The Random Walk hypothesis for the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange: January 1998 - November 2006.
(Science Publications, 2008) Sunde, Tafirenyika; Zivanomoyo, James
The main intention of this study was to investigate, using monthly data, whether prices in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) follow a random-walk process as required for there to be market efficiency. The study applied the unit root tests to establish if the ZSE followed a random walk or not. If the ZSE follows a random walk it is said to be efficient and therefore managers of companies and investment specialists cannot take advantage of it to make unnecessarily huge profits. The ZSE was chosen because it represents a typical emerging stock market in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests with a lag length that was necessary to remove autocorrelation from residuals. Using monthly data from January 1998-November 2006 we found that the ZSE did not follow a random walk and therefore was not efficient in the weak form. This meant that past prices had an influence in the determination of future prices and this provided an opportunity for out-performance by skillful financial managers and investment specialists. During the period studied investment analysts and managers of companies were able to take advantage of these investment opportunities to make abnormal returns from the ZSE. The current study helped to corroborate the findings of a similar previous study that was carried out on the Zimbabwean economy for the period 1990-1998[8].
Determinants of intra-industry trade between Zimbabwe and its trading partners in the Southern Africa Development Community region (1990-2006).
(Science Publications, 2009) Sunde, Tafirenyika; Chidoko, C.; Zivanamoyo, James
The main objective of this study was to establish the determinants of intra industry trade between Zimbabwe and its trading partners in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The study was mainly motivated by the need to establish the type of goods that Zimbabwe trades with its trading partners. Approach: The study also wanted to prove the hypothesis that similarity in per capita income is not the main determinant of intra-industry trade between Zimbabwe its SADC trading partners; and also that intra industry trade does not necessarily take place among countries with similar economic structures and level of development. The study used the Modified Standard Gravity Equation which has Intra-Industry Trade Index as its dependant variable. The model was regressed using Ordinary Least Squares in excel. Results: The results of the study show that per capita income, trade intensity, distance, exchange rate and gross domestic product explain Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) between Zimbabwe and its SADC trading partners. The study also established that most countries in SADC trade in more or less the same goods and this can be explained by the type of development that these countries were subjected to during the colonial era which resulted in the establishment of similar economic structures and per capita incomes that were more or less the same. As result, these countries produce and trade similar products. Both hypotheses above were proved wrong. Conclusion: We therefore concluded that Zimbabwe needs to get into more bilateral trade agreements with its trading partners in order to enhance trade between itself and its trading partners. We also concluded that Zimbabwe has to give incentives to its producers and also mend its relationship with the Breton Woods Institutions (International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) if it wants to reach its full trade potential.
A review of the determinants of share prices.
(Science Publications, 2009) Sunde, Tafirenyika; Sanderson, Abel
The main purpose of the review was to qualitatively establish the determinants of share prices in Zimbabwe. The review was carried out in 2006 before the situation in Zimbabwe deteriorated to the level where it is at the moment. Approach: To gather the information that we wanted we used interviews and the archival method. We targeted the people in the various organisations/companies that are registered on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE), stock exchange staff, stock broking firms, investment analysts and chief executives. Results: We concluded that there are economic, political and social factors that determine the stock prices in Zimbabwe. However, economic and political factors were established to be the dominant factors in the determination of stock prices. Conclusion: We concluded that if the stock exchange is to perform well the economic and political situation in the country has to be stable. In other words government has to take some deliberate steps to ensure that the economy of the country is well run and also that there is political stability.
Seller concentration in the grain milling industry.
(Science Publications, 2010) Charumbira, Martin; Sunde, Tafirenyika
The main purpose of the study was to explore the levels of concentration in Zimbabwe’s grain-milling industry during period 1985-2005. The study could not be extended to periods after 2005 because the situation in the country had become economically chaotic. Approach: The methodology adopted involved the calculation of the concentration indices such as the Herfindall-Hirschman index, Hannah and Kay index, the Entropy index and the Four-Firm Concentration ratio. Results: The study revealed that liberalisation of the industry reduced seller concentration levels. The response to deregulation in this particular sector confirms the theoretical expectation that liberalisation promotes competition and reduces market power of existing firms, which is also consistent with the world-wide trends. Conclusion: The policies adopted at the inception of Economic Structural Adjustment Programmed (ESAP) should be pursued more vigorously to create a manufacturing base which is open to competition and which is insulated from adverse effects of possible manipulation by a few large firms. Policy should be aimed at maintaining affordability of the basic commodities to the consumers as well as ensuring viability to the manufacturers. With high levels of industrial concentration, producers are able to operate at a higher-cost system without losing market share, but this is to the detriment of the consumers.
Financial sector development and economic growth in Namibia.
(JETEMS, 2010) Sunde, Tafirenyika
The main objective of the study was to determine the nature of the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth with specific reference to the amibian economy. The reason why I carried out this study is that no similar study has yet been carried out in amibia and the nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth is still not known. This study, therefore, is the first step in attempting to provide literature that could be useful to policy makers and academics in amibia. We used the Granger causality tests to establish the relationship among the financial sector indicators and economic growth indicators after having carried out the unit root and co integration tests. The results show that the Granger causality between financial development and economic growth is by and large bidirectional. In other words, this means that when the economy grows the financial sector may respond positively and vice versa. We also found that the financial sector variable, the logarithm of the ratio of private sector credit to gross domestic product (GDP), Granger caused the real variables, logarithm of real GDP, and logarithm of real income per capita. This is in line with the conclusion above that real variables could respond favorably to financial variables. So causality in this case is running from financial variables to real sector variables. The article ended with a cautionary statement on the size of the sample used and the general availability of statistical data on the amibian economy, which could have negatively affected the authenticity of the results.
Is Namibia's inflation import-driven? An econometric investigation.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Sunde, Tafirenyika
The principal objective of this study was to investigate and test the hypothesis that Namibia’s inflation is mainly driven by imports using annual macroeconomic data. The study relied heavily on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The study confirmed the results of previous studies (which used different methodologies from the current study) that inflation in Namibia is heavily import driven. The other variables that were found significant in explaining inflation in Namibia are rate of growth of GDP, broad money supply (M2), real interest rates and the real exchange rate. The main conclusion that we came to is that Namibia needs to put more emphasis in developing its manufacturing base which would ensure increased domestically produced output and less imported inflation from South Africa and the rest of the world.
Modelling the connection between foreign trade and economic growth with OLS technique: Further empirical evidence from Namibia.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Economic growth is undoubtedly one of the most complex processes in economic literature. It is therefore quite an enormous task in an attempt to try and construct an empirical model to explain in a detail manner the growth process of any modern economy. In this study, we have tried to isolate and investigate factors that could be of use in explaining the growth process by using Namibia as a laboratory test ground. More specifically, the following explanatory variables came under scrutiny-exports, imports, balance of payments‟ accounts, inflation, including foreign direct investment. In carrying out the investigation, we relied upon a combination of bivariate and multivariate regression models. We also specified and estimated the double log transformations of the various regression equations that were used in the study in order to determine the responsiveness of changes in the regressors with respect to economic growth. Macroeconomic data utilised runs from 1990 to 2008. The results of the study confirmed that exports and foreign direct investment, including the balance of payments‟ accounts are good predictors of economic performance, while imports and inflation are leakages and could be detrimental to the entire economy, especially, it left uncontrolled over a protracted period of time. The study concludes by recommending, inter alia, the pursuit of an export-led industrialization policy for Namibia, while at the same time creating an environment that would encourage investors, especially foreign investors to 3 relocate part of their capital to Namibia. We also put forward some proposals for researchers willing to carrying out further investigation regarding the issue under discussion.
A statistical analysis of the macroeconomic performance of three selected SADC countries.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Chakanga, Chisha
The purpose of the study was to investigate and analyse the economic performances of three SADC countries, Botswana, Namibia and Zambia before and after the signing of the MoU on Macroeconomic Convergence during the period of 1990 and 2007. Four macroeconomic indicators namely, budget deficit as a percentage of GDP, current account balance as a % of GDP, real exchange rate and external debt as a % of GDP were used. Using regression analysis techniques, the study found that there was fair favourable economic performance by Botswana and Namibia during 1990 and 2007. Zambia on the other hand had an unfavourable economic performance from 1990 until late 2002. From the estimate results, the study further concluded that the variables in most instances were useful for monitoring regional integration and determining the country‟s macroeconomic performance. Each country had a different variable that determined its economic performance better than the other did. Policies put in place to ensure that the set targets are being achieved are not as efficient yet as the impact of the MoU and its policies are yet to be felt. The study concluded by recommending that more research be done on all the indicators to allow policy implementers to recognise what the main focus should be in achieving regional integration and other SADC objectives. The researchers also recommended that more emphasis should also be placed on mobilising resources that would lead to the achievement of the regional bloc set targets.
Investigating the sources of poverty in the informal settlements using Greenwell Matongo as a laboratory test ground.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Ngeendepi, Elson J.
Poverty is undoubtedly one of the main challenges facing mankind. In this study Questionnaires were designed and used to collate relevant data and subsequently analyzed. The findings of the study indicate that most informal settlement breeds poverty and the following factors were implicated as accounting for the high degree of poverty in the informal settlements: Unemployment, low literacy rate, the absence of basic infrastructures, including low income levels. The study recommends various interventionist policies that could be used to address and possibly ameliorate the magnitude of poverty currently eating deep into the Namibian society. The paper concluded by encouraging other social researchers to carry out more studies regarding the issue of poverty in Namibia.
Entrepreneurs' useful framework for designing, developing and preparing bankable business plan.
(2012) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
A well-written business plan is increasingly becoming a key requirement for obtaining loans from financial institutions on the part of entrepreneurs. In the light of this, the paper attempts to highlight critical issues in the process of designing, developing and preparing an acceptable business plan. Specifically, issues such as the alternative uses of a business plan, users of a business plan, the main ingredients embedded in a business plan amongst others are discussed. The paper maintains that the success of a business operation will critically depend on the nature of its business plan. Consequently, It is envisaged that knowledge gained from this paper would in turn sharpen the skills of potential entrepreneurs in various ways.
Financial sector development and economic growth nexus in South Africa
(Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, 2012) Sunde, Tafirenyika
The study investigated the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in South Africa using cointegration and error correction modelling and; the Granger causality tests. The results of the study show that economic growth is explained by the financial sector variables and control variables such as inflation, exchange rate, and real interest rates. The Granger causality test results show that there is generally a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and financial sector development which implies that if the economy grows the financial services sector also grows and vice versa.
Economic growth and tax structure in Zimbabwe: 1984–2009
(Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, 2012) Marire, Juniours; Sunde, Tafirenyika
We examine the tax-growth nexus in Zimbabwe using parametric and non-parametric analysis. We use a two-stage estimation procedure that first generates efficiency scores for the country using a Data Envelopment Approach. We use the efficiency scores in the second stage to normalise growth to get a proxy for potential economic growth. Using this potential growth we run a translog model that allows computation of time-varying elasticities of growth to changes in tax policy. The translog model results we got indicate that economic growth is inelastic to tax structure in Zimbabwe. As such, we recommend policies that rely on non-tax stimuli to the economy to buttress growth. We find that the most inefficient years were those punctuated with bad economic governance and droughts.

Browse

Browsing Economics by Issue Date

Results Per Page

Sort Options