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Item The applicability of the short-run Phillips Curve to Namibia.(Frontiers in Bioscience., 2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.In this research, we invoke linear and logarithmic regression models to empirically test the validity of the Short-run Phillips curve for Namibia by relying on macroeconomic time-series data running from 1991 to 2005.Our results offer some support for the presence of the phenomenon of stagflation in Namibia. This is rather contradictory to the underlying philosophy of the original Phillips curve. In the light of the outcome of the investigation anti-inflation cum unemployment measures are suggested. Further studies focussing on the applicability of the Phillips curve to the economy of Namibia is strongly recommended.Item AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA(JEL, 2017) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Meyer, DanielThe driving objective of the study was to estimate the impact of foreign trade on economic performance using the economy of South Africa as a test site. The study contributes to the empirical literature by testing for a long-run relationship between foreign trade and economic performance in South Africa by employing quarterly data stretching from the period 1995Q1 to 2015Q4. The method of vector autoregression (VAR) was employed. Variables included in the study consisted of real GDP, exports, openness of the economy and exchange rate. The study found cointegrating relationships among the variables investigated, and that export was found to contribute more towards economic performance compared to openness of the economy and exchange rates. When it came to Granger-causality analysis, the study found a number of unidirectional relationships between the pairs of variables examined in the model. For example, it was found that economic growth granger causes exports and also openness of the economy granger causes exports. The forecast error variance decomposition suggests that economic performance itself accounted for most of the innovations that ensued during the 10-period forecast horizon employed in the analysis. Policymakers could utilize the results of this study, when it comes to policy formulation and design for the economy of South Africa. The findings of the research could be used to improve upon economic policy for South Africa and other developing countries on a similar path. The study creates opportunities for further research endeavours concerning the issue under investigation so as to unveil more evidence on the nature of the relationship between foreign trade and economic performance in the economy of South Africa.Item Can Foreign Trade Propel Economic Growth in Nigeria? Evidence from Causality Analysis(JEL, 2017) Ogbokor, Cyril A.Documented studies in the existing literature pertaining to causality relationships between foreign trade and economic growth indicators are quite enormous. This study investigates the dynamic causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Nigeria during the period extending from 1995:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The study responds to the issue of omitted variable bias by incorporating trade openness and exchange rates as control variables. The study employed the granger-causality tests to determine the causal relationship, and in particular the direction of causality among the variables examined after carrying out the stationarity, cointegration and diagnostic tests. The study found a number of distinctive unidirectional causalities running from trade openness to exports, exports to exchange rates, real GDP to exports, trade openness to exchange rates, as well as from real GDP to exchange rates. These results suggest that, to increase and sustain economic growth, Nigeria should commit huge resources to its infrastructural development, diversification strategy, incentives pertaining to the country’s manufacturing sector, trade promotion policy, as well as having in place, an effective monitoring mechanism of curbing dumping activities of multinational corporations. The study recommends that, in future studies, efforts should be made to increase the variables used in the causality model. It is also suggested that future research endeavours, should engage other causality models in the existing literature to further investigate the issue under consideration.Item DETERMINANTS OF HOUSE PRICES AND NEW CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE NAMIBIAN HOUSING MARKET(J o u r n a l o f D e v e l o p i n g A r e a s, 2017) Sunde, Tafirenyika; Muzindutsi, Paul-FrancoisThe demand for and supply of housing are heterogeneous and differ across countries, provinces and cities. In the Namibian context, the housing market has experienced a substantial increase in house prices. Such an unexpected growth rate in house prices suggests that the Namibian housing market may not be sustainable in the long term. This means that there is a high probability of a housing price bubble in Namibia if the house prices continue to increase. The aim of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of endogenous and exogenous determinants of house prices and new construction activity in Namibia. This study also attempted to establish whether there is evidence of overvaluation of house prices in the Namibian housing market and this is important in identifying the possibility of a housing price bubble in Namibia. In addition, the study is relevant during the current period where Namibia is faced with a continuous increase in house prices. A restricted VAR model with a Johansen cointegration approach was used to analyse monthly data from January 2000 to December 2014. The selection of the data set was aimed at providing representatives for various housing demand drivers and housing supply determinants. For modelling on the supply side, new construction investment as a percentage of GDP was employed. The other variables incorporated as exogenous variables include the economic growth rate, the consumer price index, nominal wages as a percentage of GDP, the short-term interest rate, mortgage loans as a share of GDP and population in the 15-64 cohort as a percentage of GDP. Results show that the house price index in Namibia has proved more sensitive to changes in population, mortgage loans and inflation; whereas the construction activities were found to be more sensitive to the house price index and inflation. Granger causality results show that there is a bidirectional causality between the house price index and new construction activity in Namibia. The study therefore found evidence of overvaluation of house prices in the Namibian housing market, which may lead to a house price bubble in the Namibian economy. Namibian policymakers, through the Bank of Namibia, should come up with policies which ensure that the majority of mortgages given by the banks are for constructing new houses instead of financing the purchase of existing houses.Item Determinants of intra-industry trade between Zimbabwe and its trading partners in the Southern Africa Development Community region (1990-2006).(Science Publications, 2009) Sunde, Tafirenyika; Chidoko, C.; Zivanamoyo, JamesThe main objective of this study was to establish the determinants of intra industry trade between Zimbabwe and its trading partners in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The study was mainly motivated by the need to establish the type of goods that Zimbabwe trades with its trading partners. Approach: The study also wanted to prove the hypothesis that similarity in per capita income is not the main determinant of intra-industry trade between Zimbabwe its SADC trading partners; and also that intra industry trade does not necessarily take place among countries with similar economic structures and level of development. The study used the Modified Standard Gravity Equation which has Intra-Industry Trade Index as its dependant variable. The model was regressed using Ordinary Least Squares in excel. Results: The results of the study show that per capita income, trade intensity, distance, exchange rate and gross domestic product explain Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) between Zimbabwe and its SADC trading partners. The study also established that most countries in SADC trade in more or less the same goods and this can be explained by the type of development that these countries were subjected to during the colonial era which resulted in the establishment of similar economic structures and per capita incomes that were more or less the same. As result, these countries produce and trade similar products. Both hypotheses above were proved wrong. Conclusion: We therefore concluded that Zimbabwe needs to get into more bilateral trade agreements with its trading partners in order to enhance trade between itself and its trading partners. We also concluded that Zimbabwe has to give incentives to its producers and also mend its relationship with the Breton Woods Institutions (International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) if it wants to reach its full trade potential.Item ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NAMIBIA: EVIDENCE FROM ANNUAL DATA(Sobiad, 2016) Ogbokor, C. AThe driving objective of the study was to measure in quantitative terms the influence of foreign direct investment on economic growth through cointegration techniques. Namibia was used as a case study. Annual dataset stretching from 1990 to 2014 was also applied. The imperative findings arising from the study constitutes the following: The study found long-run relationships among all the variables under consideration in the econometric model. The estimated long-run equation also indicates a positive association between the explanatory variables and real gross domestic product. In particular, net foreign direct capital was found to have a stronger influence on economic growth compared to openness and real foreign exchange rate. Correspondingly, a unidirectional relationship running from real exchange rate to net foreign direct investments was found. In addition, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, openness and net foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast horizon compared to real exchange rate variable. The research paper concludes by creating opportunities for further investigations.Item An Econometric Investigation of the Impact of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth: The Case of Namibia(British Journals, 2016) Ogbokor, Cyril, A; Meyer, Daniel. FThis study investigated the impact of foreign trade on economic growth in Namibia for the period 1990-2012 using the Auto-regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Further, annual time series macroeconomic data was utilised. The results show co-integrating relationships amongst the variables used in the study suggesting the possibility of a long-run relationship amongst these variables. Secondly, the study found positive relationships amongst the four variables used in the study implying that foreign trade could potentially be used to promote economic growth. The result is also in line with economic postulation. Thirdly, the model used for the study was found to be stable from an econometric point of view. Based on these results the study puts forward various policies that would make Namibian exports to have a comparative and competitive edge in international markets. In this context, the study stressed the importance of investing in the country’s export-oriented sectors for the sake of promoting foreign trade and economic growth in Namibia.Item An econometric study of the long-run relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from a developing country.(IJECM, 2015) Ogbokor, Cyril A.The high levels of financial allocations to Namibia’s defence budgets have been heavily criticised because such expenditures is considered as a leakage to the country’s economy. In light of this, the study assessed the impact of military spending on economic growth in Namibia by employing the two-step Engle-Granger approach in the context of a single equation setting. The macro-economic time-series data sets utilised stretches from 1990 to 2014. The study found co-integration relationships among the variables used, suggesting the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables used in the econometric model. Furthermore, the model used passed the stability test. However, the predictive power of the model was found to be very weak given the low value of the adjusted coefficient of determination. In addition, a unidirectional causality relationship running from economic growth to military expenditure was found implying that military spending does not promote or lead to economic growth. Therefore, the need for the government to control its expenditure on defence cannot be over stressed given the findings of the study. Concomitantly, further studies concerning the issue under examination should consider the use of quarterly data sets as against annual data sets.Item An Econometric Time-Series Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in a Developing Country: Evidence from Namibia(AUDOE, 2016) Ogbokor, Cyril, A; Meyer, Daniel. MEconomists have an inclination for quantifying the relationships amongst variables at both micro and macro levels. In this study, the possibility of a long-run relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Namibia is assessed. Exports, foreign direct investment and exchange rates were used as potential predictors of economic growth, while real gross domestic product served as a proxy to economic growth. Quarterly time-series macro-economic secondary data sets were utilised from the period 1990 to 2013. Firstly, the study found positive relationships amongst the four variables used in the study. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can potentially be expanded by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with broad economic theory. Secondly, the study found that economic growth responds stronger to changes in exports and foreign direct investment compared to changes in exchange rates. Thirdly, co-integrating relationships were found amongst the variables used in the study, implying a long-run relationship amongst these variables. Lastly, the study found that exports indeed Granger-cause economic growth. The implications of the research are that the results of the research could be used to improve economic policy for Namibia and other developing countries.Item Economic growth and tax structure in Zimbabwe: 1984-2009.(Inderscience Enterprises Ltd., 2012) Marire, Juniours; Sunde, TafirenyikaWe examine the tax-growth nexus in Zimbabwe using parametric and non-parametric analysis. We use a two-stage estimation procedure that first generates efficiency scores for the country using a Data Envelopment Approach. We use the efficiency scores in the second stage to normalise growth to get a proxy for potential economic growth. Using this potential growth we run a translog model that allows computation of time-varying elasticities of growth to changes in tax policy. The translog model results we got indicate that economic growth is inelastic to tax structure in Zimbabwe. As such, we recommend policies that rely on non-tax stimuli to the economy to buttress growth. We find that the most inefficient years were those punctuated with bad economic governance and droughts.Item Economic growth and tax structure in Zimbabwe: 1984–2009(Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, 2012) Marire, Juniours; Sunde, TafirenyikaWe examine the tax-growth nexus in Zimbabwe using parametric and non-parametric analysis. We use a two-stage estimation procedure that first generates efficiency scores for the country using a Data Envelopment Approach. We use the efficiency scores in the second stage to normalise growth to get a proxy for potential economic growth. Using this potential growth we run a translog model that allows computation of time-varying elasticities of growth to changes in tax policy. The translog model results we got indicate that economic growth is inelastic to tax structure in Zimbabwe. As such, we recommend policies that rely on non-tax stimuli to the economy to buttress growth. We find that the most inefficient years were those punctuated with bad economic governance and droughts.Item Education Expenditure and Economic Growth in Mauritius: An Application of the Bounds Testing Approach(European Scientific Journal, 2017) Sunde, TafirenyikaThis study examines the relationship between education expenditure and economic growth in Mauritius. The study employed the ARDL bounds testing methodology for the period 1976 to 2016. The study found that education expenditure Granger causes economic growth in Mauritius in the short run. In addition, the study also found that economic growth does not Granger cause education expenditure in Mauritius in the short run. However, in the long-run, the study found that there are long run relationships between education expenditure and economic growth in both equations; and this means that an increase in either of the variables will eventually lead to an increase in the other variable. The study, therefore, found support for the hypothesis that investment in education raises economic growth. This means that Mauritius has the potential to benefit from further investments in education in the future.Item The effects of monetary policy on unemployment in Namibia(KSP Journals, 2015) Sunde, TafirenyikaThe main purpose of the article was to establish the effects of monetary policy on unemployment in Namibia. The article used the structural VAR methodology in a macroeconometric setting to achieve this. The results show that monetary policy affects unemployment in Namibia in the short run and in the long run, it is ineffective. These results differ from the results by Alexius & Holmlund (2007) and Jacobs et al. (2003) who found that monetary policy has a significant role to play in explaining unemployment in both the short run and the long run. This means that there is still need to investigate the other explanations of long run unemployment in Namibia such as the demand and supply related variables so that appropriate policies are propounded to address it effectively.Item Entrepreneurs' useful framework for designing, developing and preparing bankable business plan.(2012) Ogbokor, Cyril A.A well-written business plan is increasingly becoming a key requirement for obtaining loans from financial institutions on the part of entrepreneurs. In the light of this, the paper attempts to highlight critical issues in the process of designing, developing and preparing an acceptable business plan. Specifically, issues such as the alternative uses of a business plan, users of a business plan, the main ingredients embedded in a business plan amongst others are discussed. The paper maintains that the success of a business operation will critically depend on the nature of its business plan. Consequently, It is envisaged that knowledge gained from this paper would in turn sharpen the skills of potential entrepreneurs in various ways.Item Exploring co-integration and causality relationships between government expenditure and economic performance in Namibia.(IISTE, 2015) Ogbokor, Cyril A.One of the heated discussions among economists nowadays relates to the efficacy of government expenditure as a tool for stimulating growth in the national economy. This research paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the possibility of a dynamic relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Namibia through the use of the two-step Engle-Granger approach. Accordingly, the study examines interactions between total government expenditure and economic growth by also including health and education as potential predictors of economic growth. The annual time-series macroeconomic secondary data-set relied upon runs from the period 1990 to 2013. The dependent variable, that is, real gross domestic product serves as a proxy to economic growth; while total public expenditure, as well as, expenditures on education and health operated in the model as predictors of economic growth. First, the study found co-integration relationships among the variables used in the study. Second, a unidirectional causality relationship running from economic growth to the health sector was observed. Further, the study found that government spending and expenditures on education and health are all weak predictors of economic growth. The lesson arising from this study would be that simply pumping a lot of financial resources into particular sectors of the economy is not a guarantee for growth. Forthcoming studies should amongst others direct attention to the type of activities that public finance is mainly used for in the health and education sectors in respect of Namibia.Item Financial development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Namibia (1990Q1-2011Q4).(Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB), 2013) Sunde, TafirenyikaI attempt to empirically establish the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Namibia using the cointegration framework. The main objectives of the article are to econometrically determine the nexus between financial development and economic growth using multivariate Granger causality tests, impulse response functions and variance decomposition, as well as propose some policy alternatives for the policy makers. The article contributes to macroeconomic literature on the financial development-economic growth relationship given the fact that it is one of the few researches on the same topic ever done on Namibia. The article finds that there is a unidirectional relationship between financial development and economic growth in Namibia running from economic growth to financial development. The findings imply that Namibia realises financial sector development when the economy grows and not the other way round. The fact that the financial services sector is not significantly influencing economic growth in Namibia is a real cause for concern which implies that either the banking sector is too small to have any significant impact on the economy or it is uncompetitive and therefore inefficient. The article recommends that one way of reforming the financial sector in Namibia is to subject it to some form of competition through the licensing of new banks, of course, taking into account the size of the Namibian market.Item Financial sector development and economic growth in Namibia.(JETEMS, 2010) Sunde, TafirenyikaThe main objective of the study was to determine the nature of the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth with specific reference to the amibian economy. The reason why I carried out this study is that no similar study has yet been carried out in amibia and the nature of the relationship between financial development and economic growth is still not known. This study, therefore, is the first step in attempting to provide literature that could be useful to policy makers and academics in amibia. We used the Granger causality tests to establish the relationship among the financial sector indicators and economic growth indicators after having carried out the unit root and co integration tests. The results show that the Granger causality between financial development and economic growth is by and large bidirectional. In other words, this means that when the economy grows the financial sector may respond positively and vice versa. We also found that the financial sector variable, the logarithm of the ratio of private sector credit to gross domestic product (GDP), Granger caused the real variables, logarithm of real GDP, and logarithm of real income per capita. This is in line with the conclusion above that real variables could respond favorably to financial variables. So causality in this case is running from financial variables to real sector variables. The article ended with a cautionary statement on the size of the sample used and the general availability of statistical data on the amibian economy, which could have negatively affected the authenticity of the results.Item Financial sector development and economic growth nexus in South Africa(Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, 2012) Sunde, TafirenyikaThe study investigated the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in South Africa using cointegration and error correction modelling and; the Granger causality tests. The results of the study show that economic growth is explained by the financial sector variables and control variables such as inflation, exchange rate, and real interest rates. The Granger causality test results show that there is generally a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and financial sector development which implies that if the economy grows the financial services sector also grows and vice versa.Item Financial sector development and economic growth nexus in South Africa.(Interscience Enterprises Ltd., 2012) Sunde, TafirenyikaThe study investigated the nexus between financial sector development and economic growth in South Africa using co-integration and error correction modelling and; the Granger causality tests. The results of the study show that economic growth is explained by the financial sector variables and control variables such as inflation, exchange rate, and real interest rates. The Granger causality test results show that there is generally a bidirectional relationship between economic growth and financial sector development which implies that if the economy grows the financial services sector also grows and vice versa.Item FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS: APPLICATION OF A DYNAMIC MODEL(Social Sciences Research Society, 2018) Ogbokor, Cyril A.Capital movements, whether in the form of foreign direct investment or foreign portfolio investment are considered to have a positive multiplier effect on the economy. The study contributes to the empirical literature by investigating whether foreign direct investment affects economic growth using Namibia as a test centre. The study made use of vector autoregression method to examine this relationship. A quarterly data covering 1990:Q1 to 2014:Q4 was employed. The results found cointegrating relationships among the four variables that were investigated. The estimated long-run equation also suggests a positive relationship amongst the variables that have been examined in the study. Surprisingly, no evidence of causality was found pertaining to the variables assessed in the study. Moreover, real exchange rate and net foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast horizon compared to the openness index. The study concludes by crafting opportunities for further inquiries.
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