Theses and Dissertations

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Mathematical analysis of foot and mouth disease with optimal control: a case study of FMD in Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-06) Ndeevelo, Palivamwe, Merolly
This study aims to comprehensively analyse Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) by formulat ing two mathematical models specifically tailored for confined and unconfined environments in Namibia. The models composed for this research incorporate essential compartments that capture the intricate dynamics of livestock populations, including their susceptibility to FMD, latent exposure, infectiousness, and recovery. Furthermore, the models account for the imple mentation of optimal control measures by farmers and the disease control mechanisms em ployed by national institutions such as the vaccination campaign, culling and quarantining of livestock. To ensure the stability and equilibrium of the proposed models, well-established mathemat ical principles such as the LaSalle Invariance principle, Lyapunov function and Routh-Hurwitz stability analysis are utilized. These methods assist in determining the equilibrium points of the models and assessing their stability properties. In addition, historical data on FMD reported cases within the country is also incorporated to enhance the accuracy and applicability of the models analyses. The study utilises numerical simulations with an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) solver in Python to demonstrate the impact of various scenarios of FMD progression. Furthermore, an excel-input data sheet is created to facilitate basic analysis and to showcase the variability range resulting from modifications in FMD dynamics. By employing a combination of mathematical modelling, stability analysis, historical data integration, and numerical simulations, this research provides significant insights into the be haviour and control of FMD in confined and unconfined environments in Namibia. The findings vii contribute to the existing knowledge of FMD in Namibia and provide insights that can inform decision-making and policy formulation in combating this economically significant disease.
Towards a Green Campus: Assessment of Sustainable Water Use and Management at the Namibia University of Science and Technology Campuses.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-01) Symonds, Ann
The Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST) was amongst the top 40 water consumers in the drought year of 2019. Currently, the university does not have an Environmental Management Plan (EMP) which allows it to formulate strategies to conserve and manage resources on campus and thus does not yet comply with legislation that requires such Public Sector institutions in Namibia to implement one. A Water Management Strategy (WMS) forms one aspect of an EMP which will assist in the formulation of strategies to conserve and manage environmental resources on campus in the future. This study contributes baseline information towards the development of a WMS which will help the university play its part in addressing the chronic water shortage suffered in Namibia. To understand the water consumption patterns and associated costs three campuses at NUST in Windhoek were studied. Surveys and interviews were conducted, and reports, observations and water meter readings were collected over a 13-month period. The study served to highlight several areas of concern, where wasteful and inefficient practices were observed. The results show that old and decaying infrastructure, reactive maintenance, poor management, and a lack of monitoring of water use all contributed to the high-water consumption recorded at the Upper and Lower Campuses. This is not only environmentally unsustainable but also results in unnecessary economic costs. In contrast, the heightened awareness and proactive behaviour of staff and students at the Hotel School Campus combined with the implementation of water-saving strategies demonstrated that there are easily implementable mitigation measures where water could be used more efficiently, and consumption reduced. Qualitative surveys among students and staff indicated an awareness of the drought situation and the need to conserve water. The survey respondents suggested approaches and activities such as implementing water management strategies, educating, and devising techniques and technology to reduce water consumption. To support these findings, changes in management approaches in 2021 such as proactive maintenance and monitoring of consumption and municipal charges by the Facilities Department and at the Hotel School resulted in positive effects, thus suggesting the same action can be implemented across the whole university. Valuable lessons were learned from university initiatives elsewhere,such as target setting, public displays on consumption levels and real-time feedback on targets reached. These, and proactive drought mitigation strategies instigated in other countries and suggestions from key stakeholders, can form recommendations for a WMS to be implemented at NUST. xiii The findings of this study provide a basis from which to explore and practise the identified key interventions and methods. This will help reduce water consumption, make financial savings, and promote awareness of water issues leading to more environmentally favourable practices. Better water management through the development of a WMS could lead to improved sustainability and help NUST to move towards becoming a greener university for which the survey found good support.
Human-wildlife conflict and coexistence of black-backed jackal (lupulella mesomelas) and African wild dog (lycaon pictus) in the Okakarara district communal area, Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-05) Reasoner, Emma
Human-wildlife conflict is a global phenomenon that occurs wherever humans and wildlife share resources or space. In Namibia, human-wildlife conflict is most severe in communal regions where farmers have fewer financial means to implement mitigation measures against livestock depredation. This study used camera trap data, diet analysis, and questionnaire data to explore distribution, livestock depredation, and coexistence of black-backed jackal (Lupulella mesomelas) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), the highest conflict-causing species in the understudied Okakarara District Communal Area (ODCA). A camera trap survey was conducted in 2018-2019 for 30 days in the dry season and 30 days in the wet season. Black-backed jackal and African wild dog scat was collected both opportunistically and systematically for diet analysis. Using scat locations and questionnaire data, a kernel density of African wild dog - livestock conflict was mapped to determine if African wild dog dens occurred significantly more in regions of high livestock depredation. Black backed jackal abundance was significantly higher in the dry season in areas of high village density and within 10km of African wild dog dens. Diet analysis revealed that black-backed jackal in the ODCA have a generalist omnivorous diet consisting primarily of ungulates by biomass (74.36%). They preferentially consume greater kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), which contributes 19.83% to their diet by biomass. Livestock species made up 29.74% of the biomass in their diet. Black-backed jackal diet did not differ within vs. more than 10km from known African wild dog dens, suggesting that African wild dog function as neither a competitor nor facilitator for black-backed jackal, and both canids select habitat based on concealment and avoidance of persecution. African wild dog dens occurred significantly more in areas of higher African wild dog-livestock conflict, but further research is needed to confirm this preliminary finding. Due to a recent decline in population, African wild dog may be functionally absent from the ODCA, and without top-down pressure from an apex predator, black-backed jackal have experienced mesopredator release. Conservation priorities for the ODCA should focus on capacity building to increase populations of wild prey, implement low-cost predator mitigation solutions, and reduce mesocarnivore dominance by restoring large carnivore populations.
A phytosociological classification of the vegetation of etosha heights private game reserve, Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-04) Marufu, Vimbai J.
The description of vegetation becomes more and more important for land management in the face of global climate change. In this thesis a description of the vegetation of Etosha Heights Private Game Reserve (EHGR) and its condition thereof is given. The study was conducted at Etosha Heights Private Game Reserve in the Kunene region. The reserve is a collection of ten previously cattle farms adjacent to the southern border of the Etosha National Park in Namibia. It forms part of the Angolan Mopane Woodlands, with extensive Karst elements in the form of Dolomite ridges. The study area receives on average 300 – 350 mm MAP. The reserve was stratified according to terrain features identified on aerial images, aided by an SRTM digital terrain model. 192 plots were sampled across all initial stratification units using the Braun-Blanquet method. These relevés were classified with modified TWINSPAN using a synusial approach. In addition, samples of top soil were collected and analysed for chemical and physical properties. Environmental characteristics of each relevé were subjected to a Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination to understand correlations between species composition and environmental characteristics. From the initial vegetation classification, two major vegetation units of higher syntaxonomic ranking were identified, split and further analysed separately which then subdivided into 11 associations. Altitude, slope, sand, silt and clay are the major descriptors of these vegetation units. A comparison of these associations with existing vegetation descriptions for the Etosha National Park and other studies done of the Mopane veld is done. With this descriptive work, knowledge about natural vegetation in the under-sampled arid Mopane savanna in the Kunene Region of Namibia is expanding
Assessing the readiness and recovery efforts of communal farmers towards the 2018/19 agricultural drought: A case study of Outapi Constituency in Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-09) Aileka, Gerson
This study aimed to assess the readiness of communal farmers in the Outapi Constituency in Namibia prior to the 2018/19 agricultural drought, response approaches employed to lessen drought impacts, and post drought recovery strategies necessary for prospect preparation and recovery. Literature shows that better projection in disaster risk management is attainable if there is a timely and appropriate distribution of resources to support communal households while building resilience at the household level. To address the research objectives, a mixed-method research design that employs both qualitative and quantitative methods was chosen. A structured questionnaire was administered face-to-face to the sampled communal households from five (5) villages in the Eengolo settlement. Sampling was performed on the data sets retrieved from the Namibia Communal Land Administration System (NCLAS) by means of clustering villages, and a random sample of 50% was drawn from each village. All five (5) villages have a combined population of 227 households. A total sample size of 112 households was therefore drawn. Out of the 112 households sampled, the researcher interviewed 104 households. A deficit of 8 households was recorded, mainly linked to households occupied by individuals less knowledgeable about the 2018/19 agricultural drought under review and refusals. Both primary quantitative and qualitative data were collected through the interviews with the sampled households. Key informants (Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform, Ministry of Works and Transport, Ministry of Health and Social Service, Omusati Regional Council, Office of the Prime Minister, Traditional Authority, village headmen, and other community leaders) were consulted, and qualitative data were collected. Both research approaches complemented each other, which permitted a complete analysis of the readiness, response, and recovery efforts towards the 2018/19 agricultural drought. The study found that the 2018/19 agricultural drought was associated with negative impacts such as high crop failure, high livestock mortalities instigated by a lack of water, and poor grazing, which subsequently deteriorated households’ livelihoods. Results show that 71% of households relied primarily on pensions, other social grants, and subsistence farming to sustain their livelihoods. The majority of communal households (90%) relied on livestock supplementary feeds, well-preserved crop remains, and rotational grazing systems as livestock drought preparation mechanisms to supply food for livestock. All measures were implemented using early warning information. Community early warning systems that convey early warning-related information on the likelihood of the drought to households are local media (radio and newspaper), community/traditional leaders, and the community meteorological station. Communal xiv households (44%) confirmed that the early warning information systems present in the community were reliable and trusted with drought readiness, response, and recovery. The majority of households (58%) selected drought-resistant crops (pearl millet and sorghum) that strive best in harsh conditions as a mechanism for drought preparation in the aspect of crops and vegetables because they thrive well in northern communal areas. Communal households employed interventions to strengthen their coping capacities, with 78% primarily relying on existing food reserves. Conservation of soil and water management are key. The results show that 69% of households employed appropriate water management strategies. Concerning livestock management, 82% of households relied on livestock supplement fodder that was sourced privately and through emergency support by the government. Post-recovery measures employed by communal farmers were mainly to rebuild livestock herds, as specified by 72% of households, and 49% applied crop management practices. On the marketing of crops and vegetables, 99% of households cited that portions of crops and vegetables produced are for household consumption, while 80% stipulated that they do not market their crop produces. A mere 12% have access to the market, of which 10% have access to formal markets, while 2% trade on the informal market. Results on livestock marketing show that 76% of households do not market their livestock but prefer to keep them for household consumption (94%). A mere 15% have access to the market, of which 14% trade on the informal market, while 1% trade on the formal market. In conclusion, the choice of drought readiness strategies, drought intervention strategies, and post drought recovery strategies employed by communal households was assessed. The results clearly portray that communal households experienced negative drought impacts and employed appropriate mechanisms to prepare for the drought, employed interventions to cope with the drought, and employed post-drought recovery measures. Drought is known as a natural and climatic event that is inevitable, but the implementation of appropriate measures proved to be a better way of preparing communal households to cope with drought. Moreover, appropriate measures assist in creating an environment that is resilient, has the ability to recover from drought, and lessens the impacts of droughts. Having presented key issues related to the drought readiness, response, and recovery efforts of communal farmers with implications, it is worthy to formulate recommendations focusing on policy strategy and supplementary sustainable strategies aimed at addressing identified implications. xv A number of recommendations were formulated that will assist communal farmers and allied stakeholders in strengthening household drought coping capacity, institutional response, recovery, and building resilience. The study recommends the following: the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform, the Namibia Agronomic Board, and Ministry of Industrialization and Trade, supplemented by efforts from the Constituency Councillor,should explore and create new market access and reinforcement of existing markets by communal farmers. This is vital because most communal households grow crops and vegetables and rear livestock mainly for household consumption, while others lack market access information. Communal farmers with large herds of livestock are highly advised to apply destocking, as this will assist in keeping a reasonable herd that is easier to manage with available resources during the drought. It is vital that coordination among institutions that are directly involved in the administration, coordination, and implementation of the National Disaster Management System in Namibia be strengthened. This study recommends that there is an urgent need to establish sufficient water harvesting infrastructures with the aim of complementing GRN efforts in addressing access to water in the community. As part of legislation review, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform should finalise the review of the National Drought Policy and Strategy of 1997. Communal households should consider the creation of a fodder bank, either at an individual household or community level. A post drought evaluation assessment of the whole response by communal households and key institutions that were actively involved in the response and preparation phase, such as GRN, the Red Cross, the World Food Programme, FAO, and UNICEF should be conducted to draw realistic recommendations that will assist with future improvements. Finally, the study recommends the establishment of a GRN drought recovery programme for communal households. In this case, the GRN, through the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform, Traditional Authorities, Village Headmen, and the Regional Council, should continuously identify, update, and profile vulnerable communal households, as this will ensure that post drought recovery assistance is rolled out to the most destitute households.
Assessment of the Carbon Pool at ProNamib Nature Reserve (PNNR),
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-09) Pius, Elizabeth Twitileni
Climate change in many African regions, including Namibia, is projected to get worse in the coming decennia. The consequences will mostly affect communities living in rural areas (especially in semi-arid and arid areas) as they depend on agriculture for livelihood. Poor land uses combined with drought, flood or low precipitation can eventually lead to hunger and a collapsed economy. But it is believed that global drylands have the potential to sequester carbon of about 1000 teragram (1000 Tg C yrꟷ¹), if the dryland soil and biodiversity are restored. This study took place in the ProNamib Nature Reserve (PNNR) and neighbouring livestock farms (Eckberg and Houmoed). The area is semi-arid with localised rainfall. The study’s objectives were to define the appropriate methods for determining the carbon stock in arid environments; to map and investigate the spatial pattern of the carbon stock at PNNR (ProNamib Nature Reserve) and compare that with the neighbouring livestock farm, and lastly; to investigate the key drivers of the carbon stock at PNNR and compare that with the neighbouring livestock farm. Carbon in drylands is found in different carbon pools, namely: vegetation (woody plants and herbaceous), soil and litter. We assessed carbon stock in three carbon pools (woody plants, herbaceous vegetation and soil). The study area was divided into three land management units, based on prior and current land uses (livestock farming abandoned in 2018, abandoned in 2000 and current livestock farming), and further stratified into habitats (river, mountain and grassplain). Data were collected using a stratified random sampling method in QGIS. Each management unit was allocated 30 sampling plots (ten per habitat), which totalled up to 90 sampling plots. The plots were 500m² in size for woody species, four one m² quadrats for herbaceous species and soil was collected at the centre of each plot up to a 30cm depth. Allometric equations were used to estimate the aboveground and belowground woody carbon stock. Herbaceous dry biomass was weighted, while the soil was analysed with the dry combustion/LOI method in the soil lab. These are among the methods that many researchers favour the most based on literature review. This study concluded that the soil carbon pool stores 90% of the carbon in the ProNamib area. The highest total carbon stock among habitats is recorded in the mountain (22 tonnes ha¯¹). In terms of management units, the ‘’livestock’’ unit has the highest carbon stock in the area (21 tonnes ha¯¹), the second highest is recorded in the ‘’abandoned in 2018’’ unit (18 tonnes ha¯¹), while the lowest carbon stock in the area is found in the ‘’abandoned in 2000’’ with 16 tonnes ha¯¹. This study serves as a pilot study for long-term carbon monitoring projects in the arid areas of Namibia and as a carbon baseline in the ProNamib.
Analysing the trade of meat products between Namibia and SADC countries
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-02) Andreas, Erastus
The study examines the trade in meat products between Namibia and SADC countries. Cross-section data from the UN COMTRADE, Namibia Statistic Agency (NSA), and CEPII for 2000-2020 was used. To achieve the aim of the study, estimation from the gravity model, Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), specifically using Error Components Frontier with a fixed effects model (assumes country specific and time-invariant inefficiencies), The Trade Intensity index (TII) was adopted to estimate the products that have a major effect on Namibia’s meat trade with SADC countries. Technical Efficiency Effects Frontier (fixed effects model) was used to estimate Namibia's potential trade with other SADC countries. The study established a strong positive relationship between real GDP and trade. A positive coefficient was found between the population and trade. However, distance had a negative correlation coefficient. The estimates for the real GDP coefficient are statistically significant, with a level of at least 5%. The positive and significant coefficient of real GDP implied that Namibia's trade value increased with the partner countries. The distance estimate was negative, as predicted by gravity theory. According to this finding, the greater the distance between Namibia and its trading partners, the less likely they are to trade. This variable is a proxy for transportation and other trade costs, such as communication and transaction costs. Because of this, the price increases with distance. In other words, trade volume between Namibia and its SADC members decreases proportionately as distance increases. Namibia's trade intensity trend in meat products has been on the rise from 2000 until 2020. In addition, the study shows that Namibia has performed relatively poorly and has a significant trade potential. The mean trade efficiency in meat products between Namibia and SADC countries is estimated to be approximately 22%. Mean technical efficiency shows interesting results as some SADC countries with a low percentage of trade efficiency tend to have strong potential for export growth for Namibia’s exports of meat products. Furthermore, Trade efficiency is more than 50% for DRC, Zimbabwe, and Botswana; however, it is less than 50% for most SADC countries. Based on the distance and size of economies, SADC offers export market opportunities for Namibia’s meat products. To understand the determinants of trade and relationships, it is crucial that the study advises conducting additional research to assess the competitiveness of Namibia’s meat products in the markets in the SADC region, identify and attempt to resolve trade impediments in the SADC region, evaluate the complete liberalization of trade in the agricultural sector and other sectors that contribute to the GDP of the country.
THE IMPACT OF 2016/17 FALL ARMYWORM OUTBREAK ON PEARL MILLET YIELD IN NAMIBIA
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2023-02) Sinalumbu, Lynnety Chaze
Two-thirds of the population in Namibia live in rural areas of which the majority depends on smallholder crop production as means of livelihoods. The main staple food and income generating crop grown in the North and North-Eastern regions of Namibia including Kavango East region is pearl millet. Assessments conducted between mid-February and the end of April 2017 showed that approximately 356,000 hectares of crops were affected by the Fall Army Worms (FAW) infestation in seven reported Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states including Namibia. This study examined the pearl millet yield impact caused of FAW outbreak on crop harvest during 2016/2017 cropping season in Kavango East region in Namibia. The data was collected from 100 farmers from Kavango East region. ANOVA model was applied to find the significant difference between expected and actual yield of pearl millet across the three year growing-seasons. The same model was used to analyse the differences between expected and actual yields of pearl millet between growing seasons. Chi-square test was used to determine the severity of FAW outbreak on the livelihoods of farmers. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the mitigation method used by farmers to lessen the impact of the FAW. The Welch's t-test indicates that there is a highly statistically significant (p<.0000115) difference between the expected and actual yield over three years. The second test revealed that there is a statistically significant difference p<.0000114 and p<.02 respectively in terms of expected and actual yield in the 2017 and 2018 cropping seasons and no statistically significant difference in 2019 cropping season. The analysis of severity of FAW in the livelihood of farmers in terms of loss of income with chi-square test indicates that there is a statistical significance difference amongst farmers who experienced the outbreak and those who did not with P<.1.98e-72 prompting the study to reject the null hypothesis. Evidence from the study indicates that the tactics/methods adopted to contain the FAW outbreak differ significantly from one another. The findings also indicated that the FAW outbreak influenced the production of pearl millet, which influenced the yield and way of lives of farmers who heavily relied on pearl millet as a staple diet. The study recommends that Namibia's Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Land Reform inform farmers about low-cost pest control methods and urge them to diversify their cropping by thinking about other cash crops that are not or less affected by FAW. It is suggested that the aforementioned ministry create a strategy to deal with the FAW epidemics in Namibia.
Assessment of Namibian Agricultural export diversification and trade complementarity
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-09) Kandjii, Caroline, D.
The reliance of Namibia on primary commodities and their unstable prices has left the country vulnerable to external price shocks, thus the need for appropriate agricultural trade research. This study was carried out to fill this gap by providing quantitative information regarding agricultural export diversification and trade complementarity. Specifically, the study measured the export diversification of the Namibian agricultural sector (export basket and trade destinations), analysed the trade complementarity of Namibia and trade destinations, and estimated the intensity of agricultural trade with trade destinations. To meet these objectives, the normalised Hirschman- Herfindahl index (NHHI), trade complementarity index (TCI) and trade intensity index (TII) were used to compute diversification, complementarity, and intensity respectively. The study used secondary data on the exports and imports of 19 agricultural commodity groups from 2000 to 2020 obtained from the UN COMTRADE database. Twenty trade destinations comprising ten African countries (Malawi, Mauritius, Botswana, Cameroon, Tanzania, Lesotho, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) and ten non-African countries (United States of America, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Bulgaria, China, Netherlands, Belgium, United Arab Emirates, and Brazil). The 19 agricultural commodities at SITC digit-3 level have been selected by considering their contribution to Namibia's export and import basket and the sample makes up the whole agricultural sector and the availability of data. In addition, trade destinations were selected based on the top percentage shares in exports and imports of Namibia's agricultural commodities. The results indicated that the Namibia agricultural sector exhibited a fair diversification in terms of the export basket, but it is highly concentrated in terms of destination/market. For trade complementarity, Namibia is strongly complementary with the selected trade destinations except for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Namibia intensively traded with South Africa (4.90%), Zimbabwe (1.44%), Zambia (3.92%), and Botswana (14.47%) as the rest of the trade destinations registered a TII value of less than 1. The study recommends that Namibia increases trade in the following commodities: live animals, Meat and Meat preparations and Fish and also increase bilateral trade between African trade partners, especially Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Additionally, there is a need for the Namibian government to substantially intervene in the export promotion activities to oversee the agricultural practices in the exports sectors with stimulation mechanism to increase Namibian export and attention should be focused on identifying realistic export xi opportunities for Namibia to boost and diversified agricultural export to trade destinations through research and development.
Spatial Modelling of Malaria Incidence and its Risk Factors in Namibia
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-05) Katale, Remember Ndahalashili
Malaria distribution is known to be geographical and temporal heterogeneous, with cases fluctuating across space and time, and climatic conditions are largely connected with regard to malaria occurrence, both temporally and spatially. Millions of dollars have been spent on malaria control in Namibia to achieve the goal of reducing malaria incidence from 13 to less than 1 malaria case per 1000 population in 2016 and becoming malaria free by 2020. However, malaria still remains a major public health challenge in Namibia, primarily in the KavangoWest and East, Ohangwena, and Zambezi regions. The primary purpose of this research was to fit a spatial model to profile spatial variation in malaria incidence (MoHSS) and to investigate possible associations between disease risk and environmental factors in these areas. To explain disease trends, identify malaria risk factors, and locate malaria hotspots, the INLA package in R software was used to fit a range of models, including nonspatial, spatial, and spatio-temporal models. Malaria data for 2018 to 2020 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Social Services, while monthly weather data for 2018 to 2020 were obtained from SASSCAL, and population estimates for each constituency were used to project the population for 2018 to 2020. Since more than 96% of the 2018-2019 reported malaria cases were from the Kavango East and West, Zambezi, and Ohangwena regions, and more than 80% in 2020, this study was restricted to those areas. A hierarchical Bayesian CAR model was fitted to these datasets to investigate climatic and other related factors that could explain the spatial/ temporal variation of malaria infection in Namibia. Average rainfall received on an annual basis and maximum temperature were found to have a significant spatial and temporal variation on malaria infection. Every mm increase in annual rainfall in a specific constituency in each year increases annual mean malaria cases by 0.6% in that constituency. Also, for every one ◦C increase in annual maximum temperature in a certain constituency, it will increase the annual mean cases of malaria by v 0.6%. The posterior means of the time main effect (year t) showed a visible slightly increasing global trend from 2018 to 2020. Constituencies in the Kavango outskirts East andWest regions revealed a high spatial risk and posterior relative risk (RR: 1.57 to 1.78). Both unstructured random effects (spatial and temporal) as well as temporal structured random effects revealed a significant variation of malaria. Future studies should consider examining all possible putative sources of malaria transmission including travel histories and networks, and treatment seeking behavior and should mostly focus on finding and mapping potential anopheles mosquito habitat that was missed in this study due to a lack of information in the datasets on anopheles mosquito breeding locations (e.g., irrigated agriculture). vi
Modelling poverty in Namibia using beta distribution.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-05-17) Mafale, Ndubano
Modelling poverty is important as it helps to pinpoint human development areas that are most affected by poverty. Also, modelling poverty helps in understanding the patterns and levels of poverty, which helps policy makers to plan and make targeted interventions to reduce poverty. The traditional methods of estimating poverty such as the cost of basic needs approach or the poverty line approach are surrounded by a lot of controversies as they are said to underestimate or overestimate poverty. These methods are uni-dimensional as they only estimate poverty in one dimension (e.g consumption, income and expenditure) which neglects the humanistic needs side of poverty such as access to health or education. On the other hand, methods that include the Alkire and Santos (2011) method measure poverty in more than one dimension (e.g living standards, health, and education) but are faced with prejudice as the weighting method used is based on experts’ opinion or the consensus of different stakeholders. Thus, this type of weighting method may result in biased weights and consequently result in inaccurate estimates of Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) values. This study focused on developing a multidimensional poverty model using beta distribution capable of estimating poverty for Namibia on regional and national levels. In addition, the study aimed at assessing the impact of weighting methods on MPI. The first specific objective was to develop a multidimensional poverty model using beta distribution that could be used to model poverty for Namibia. The developed model showed that the MPI is equivalent to the expected value of the left-truncated beta distribution. The uncertainty surrounding the MPI was measured through the specification of the variance. The second specific objective was to assess the impact of weighting methods on MPI. Two weighting methods (equal and entropy weighting) were adopted and their effect was assessed on the MPI obtained using the Alkire and Santos (2011) and the beta distribution approaches. The results revealed that the MPI values obtained when using entropy were iii slightly bigger than the MPI values obtained using equal weighting under the Alkire and Santos (2011) approach compared to the beta distribution approach where the MPI values obtained when using equal weighting were bigger than the ones obtained using the entropy weighting method. Moreover, the entropy weighting method was found to be better than equal weighting as it is a mathematical based approach and is not affected by a change in the number of indicators compared to equal weighting which is subjective and sensible to the number of indicators. The third specific objective was to identify more potential indicators that could be used in computing MPI which were not used in the initial computation of MPI by fitting a beta regression model. Using the NHIES 2015/2016 data, we fitted a beta regression model and identified the indicators that were left out in the initial computation of MPI. In conclusion, the results revealed that the beta distribution model can be used to estimate regional and national poverty. The results also revealed that the entropy weighting method is useful in allocating weights when computing MPI as it eliminates the bias that comes with allocating weights. Moreover, the model can be used to identify areas that are highly affected by poverty and thus helping to come up with ways to alleviate the poverty. Finally, the beta regression model can help to identify indicators to be included in computing MPI.
Analysis of factors influencing the technical efficiency of maize small-scale farmers of Kavango East Region
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-03) Kristof, Saija-Kristophine Tegelela
This study analysed the factors affecting the technical efficiency of the small-scale maize farmers of Kavango East Region with the aim of generating reliable information about the level of technical efficiency and the factors affecting technical inefficiency of small-scale maize farmers. Cross-sectional data was collected from a total of 72 small-scale maize farmers located in four (4) different irrigation schemes in the Kavango East Region (i.e. Uvhungu Vhungu Green Scheme Project, Ndonga-Linena Green Scheme Project, Shadikongoro Green Scheme Project and Salem Irrigation Project). This number of small-scale maize farmers in the Kavango East region was relatively low, hence there was no need for sampling, and as such all the 72 farmers were interviewed. Data was collected through a structured questionnaire in formal face-to-face interviews. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to generate descriptive statistics from quantitative data. Stochastic Frontier Analysis technique was employed for analysing technical efficiency of the farmers and its determinants. From the empirical estimation, it was found that inorganic fertilisers are an important input that can increase maize productivity significantly. Seed and labour inputs were statistically insignificant in explaining maize production. The estimated value of γ, which is a parameter used to indicate the proportion of total variance attributed to technical inefficiency is 0.99 and significant. This means that 99% of the random variation in output of maize production is attributed to the technical inefficiency component, which indicates the importance of examining technical inefficiencies in maize production. The estimated mean technical efficiency score of the sample is 0.584 or 58.4%. This indicates that on average, the interviewed small-scale maize farmers are able to obtain only 58.4% of potential output from the given mix of production inputs. This finding suggests the presence of a considerable level of technical inefficiency of about 41.6% among the sampled farmers. While examining the determinants of technical efficiency, age, highest education attained, access to formal sources of credit, seed type, weeding frequency, extension office visit and training were found to be important factors affecting the technical efficiency of the small-scale maize farmers of Kavango East Region. The study, therefore, recommends enforcing extension service visits to the small-scale farmers more so that all small-scale farmers are up to date with the current, relevant and important farming information. The study also recommends improving farmers’ education through provision of continuous training programs to the farmers as well as follow up on the application of improved farming and farm management practices.
An investigation into the aetiology of anaemia in pregnant women in Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-02) Shaduka, Emma
Anaemia is a condition in which the number of circulating red blood cells (RBCs) and/or haemoglobin (HB) is reduced for the person’s age, gender and geographical specifications, which consequently affects tissue oxygenation. The common causes of anaemia are nutritional deficiencies (iron, vitamin B12 and folate), infectious diseases (malaria, Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and helminths infestation), chronic blood loss and closely spaced pregnancies. Anaemia in pregnancy impairs the health and wellbeing of women, and it is the major cause of morbidity and mortality among pregnant women and elevates the risk of perinatal and neonatal mortality. This study therefore sought to determine the etiology of anaemia in pregnant women and unravel socio-demographic factors associated with its development
Bacteria associated with petroleum hydrocarbon wastes in Kupferberg landfill site, Windhoek.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-02) Petelo, Florencia Silvia Tusevo
Petroleum compounds are organic contaminants of great interest due to their extensive dispersal, stubbornness, versatile structure and harmful elements that have been generally known to belong to the family of carcinogens and mutagens organic toxins. They contaminate many environments worldwide and enter the global environment through crude oil spillage, fossil fuel combustion as well as natural inputs like natural petroleum seepage. A range of indigenous microbes have the ability of decontaminating, breaking down, transforming and removing these hydrocarbon contaminants from the environment through biodegradation processes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to isolate and identify the bacterial strains present in the soil contaminated waste samples collected from the Kupferberg landfill site in Windhoek and to ascertain their ability to grow efficiently in hydrocarbon based medium. Collected bacterial strains were grown on nutrient agar and were characterised based on their colony features and biochemical reactions using the API 20NE identification database system. Sterile nutrient broth media was inoculated with a loop full of the bacterial isolates supplemented with 1 ml of sterile old diesel engine oil, and the optical density was measured spectrophotometrically on a daily basis. The highest mean bacterial count was found out to be 3.6 x 10􀬸 CFU/ml in site G, and the lowest mean bacterial count was found out to be 0.9 x 10􀬸 CFU/ml in site I. The bacterial strains isolated were Aeromonas hydrophila, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Sphingomonas paucimobilis, Pseudomonas luteola, Burkholderia gladioli, Photobacterium damselae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Pasteurella spp., Brevundimonas vesicularis, Burkholderia cepacia, Chryseobacterium indologenes and Aeromonas salmonicida, and it was observed that Sphingomonas paucimobilis was the predominant isolate in all the samples. Ten selected bacterial strains were subjected to hydrocarbon utilisation/ degradation test, and it was observed that Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain with a mean average optical density of 1.738, utilised the hydrocarbon in the medium more efficiently than the other isolates. The study demonstrated that the isolated Pseudomonas aeruginosa could be considered as good prospects for the bioremediation of hydrocarbons.
An investigation into predictors of hepatitis e virus (HEV) and its preventative strategies in Walvis Bay, Erongo Region, Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-02) Nghihangwa, Justina P L
Hepatitis E Virus (HEV), which is a viral liver infection was declared an epidemic in the year 2017 in Namibia. Subsequent to this declaration, the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MoHSS) called for a behavioural change effort in six affected regions in Namibia. Therefore, through this study, predictors such as cultural beliefs, demographics and socioeconomic factors of Hepatitis E virus and its preventative strategies among the Walvis Bay informal settlement residents was determined. The study helped in understanding and identifying perceptions on the predictors of the Hepatitis E virus outbreak among residents in Walvis Bay. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods using an exploratory descriptive design. In-depth interviews (n = 20 health care workers and Hepatitis E virus sufferers) guided by an interview guide was conducted with key informants, structured selfadministered questionnaires were distributed to 264 households, and records were reviewed from the Ministry of Health and Social Services, in the Walvis Bay State Hospital’s Health Information System (HIS). Quantitative data were analysed using Microsoft Excel of 2016 and Statistical Package for Services Solutions (SPSS) version 26, whereas content analysis was done for qualitative data illustrated through codes and verbatim quotes using ATLAS.ti 9. The correlation of dependent and independent variables was determined using Chi-square tests and one-way Multivariate Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The study identified complex cultural beliefs such as eating food with own hands (mean =0.93), washing hands in one bucket (mean =0.67), shaking hands when greeting (mean=0.66) and the use of traditional medicine (mean=0.45). As indicated in the Walvis Bay epidemiological curve, the fluctuation of confirmed cases in each week was observed with the total of 206 cases, majority (57%) being male. Positive associations (p value =3.841) between the identified complex cultural beliefs and the population’s socio-demographic characteristics were determined. Finally, the use of traditional medicine, lack of HEV interventions to the affected communities and the socio-demographic factors were identified as the main obstacles to the health care management of HEV in Otweya informal settlement, Walvis Bay. The results of this current study showed that there are different traditional and cultural practices such as the use of traditional medicine (Oukoreb, Kamaku, Nara !Nomab) and hand hygiene practices (Shaking hands when greeting, washing hands in one bucket of water, vi eating with hands without cutlery and eating together in one plate) act as predictors of HEV prevalence in Otweya informal settlement of Walvis Bay. HEV cases were high in the informal settlements and there were positive associations between the socio-demographic of the population and cultural beliefs that would lead to the prevalence of HEV. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended to understand and identify shared main cultural beliefs of the community with health needs for effective interventions to curb and prevent diseases such as HEV at the informal settlements of Namibia. Recommendations were made to assist policy makers to design effective integrated primary health care strategies to serve the communities in informal settlements in Namibia.
Investigating TH2‐mediated immune response in children with type 1 hypersensitivity.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-02) Nepolo, Elina Penomwaameni
The global prevalence of type 1 hypersensitivity is becoming more prevalent in recent years, particularly among children in developing countries. This has been attributed to rapid modernisation in low‐to‐middle income countries which promotes the manifestation of allergy risk factors. Type 1 hypersensitivity reactions are exaggerated immune responses to allergens that would not usually elicit immunological response. These allergic reactions are primarily characterized by T helper (TH2)‐ mediated inflammation modulated by interleukin (IL)‐4, a cytokine that promotes B‐cell activation and class switch to secrete immunoglobin (Ig)E. Notably, the severity of TH2‐mediated inflammation in allergic reactions seems to be influenced by the type of allergen. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate TH2 immune responses in children with atopy.
Iron metabolism and its association with chronic inflammation and cardiovascular risk in Type 2 diabetes mellitus.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2021-02) Ndevahoma, Fransina
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a low‐grade systemic inflammatory condition that is characterised by hyperglycaemia driven by defects in insulin resistance, insulin secretion, or both. Hyperglycaemia, obesity‐induced inflammation, and dyslipidaemia have been implicated in increasing cardiovascular risk in patients with T2D. Interestingly, a growing body of evidence has also linked these abnormalities to altered iron metabolism in patients with T2D. However, the exact mechanisms behind this dysregulation are not well understood. Therefore, understanding the iron profiles in poor glucose control may pave ways to the identification of pathways involved in iron dysmetabolism and the development of therapeutic interventions. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to investigate iron profiles in patients with T2D and to further assess the impact of inflammation on these profiles. In addition, it aimed to assess the cardiovascular risk in patients with T2D and to determine whether there are any associations between iron lipids and inflammation profiles in these patients.
Assessment and perception of water quality on the health of Grünau and Bethanie residents, Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2021-06) Nambundunga, Benisia N.
Water quality is an important aspect of water provision services to ensure the water does not possess any possible threat to its consumers. Water quality perception surveys are ideal tools when exploring the feelings, opinions and attitudes people have towards their water. This includes the human-water interactions involved as well as behaviour and consumption practices they have with their water. The purpose of this study was to investigate the perception of consumers towards their water and determine the water quality and its effect on human health – a case of Grünau and Bethanie residents. This was an observational study, where questionnaires were administered, and water quality tests were carried out to determine the physical, chemical and biological contaminants of public water supply in Grünau and Bethanie settlements. The study sample consists of 384 participants selected using the convenience sampling method. Data from the questionnaire were recorded and analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21 as well as the descriptive analysis. Ethical clearance was sought from The Namibia University of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Health and Social Services as well as the respective village councils. Confidentiality and anonymity of the respondents were maintained during the study. The study revealed that consumer perception of the quality of public water supply in the study area is based mainly on organoleptic features, such as taste, colour and turbidity. In addition, the study found that 64.6% of the participants in the study area were strongly dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied with the taste of their water while 52.1% were strongly dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied with the colour. The smell of the water did not seem to affect the respondents as only 2.3% of the participants were strongly dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied with the smell of the water. The study further revealed that 59.9% of the participants perceived their water to be highly unsafe or somewhat unsafe. The water quality laboratory analysis revealed that the water contains several minerals such as magnesium, calcium, and fluoride in large quantities, which correlate to the “unpleasant” taste of the water as described by the community. The study recommends a more thorough treatment process by NamWater to remove excess minerals (magnesium and calcium) that are responsible for the hardness and lime taste of the water.
Assessment of the effect of groundwater quality on human health in Ovitoto, Otjozondjupa region, Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2022-04) Mwatukange, Priskila Shevamwaveke
Water is an essential part to the well-being and economic development of mankind. Namibia’s dry climate makes it susceptible to drought; hence, water is a scarce resource. To address water scarcity, boreholes are drilled to access groundwater for agricultural, industrial and domestic use. Many local authorities rely on this resource for supply to residents for domestic and other uses. But, the quality of groundwater is influenced by various factors, including pollution from point and non-point sources. A case study was done which involved the collection of water samples in the boreholes and laboratory analysis and assessment of the quality of sampled water. Non-probability-purposive sampling method was applied in the selection of sampling site. This study assessed the physicochemical (toxic heavy metals such as zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn) and lead (Pb) as well as microbiological (Coliforms, E. coli and heterotrophic plate count) water quality of groundwater from boreholes that are supplied to the community of Ovitoto in Otjozondjupa region. This was done to assess the prevalence and possible human health concern as an outcome of consumption of the water. A total of 108 water samples were collected over a period of six months at an average of monthly intervals. Elemental components were extracted from water samples using mineral acid digestion and analysed through the use of Inductively Couple-Plasma Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-OES), while the microbial entities were analysed using the Polymerase Chain Reaction method (PCR). The overall mean concentration of heavy metals in the absorbed water samples through the sampling periods were Zn (0.83 mg/kg), Cd (0.01 mg/kg), Pd (0.02 mg/kg), Fe (17.76 mg/kg) and Mn (7.09 mg/kg). A strong correlation (r=0.99) was obtained between Zn and Cd while Cd and Cu were averagely correlated (r=0.55). Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values < 1 was recorded for all analysed heavy metals, both in children and adults were below the permissible limits. However, Carcinogenic Risk Index (CRI) values for Mn was > 1 for both adults (4.75) and children (18.10). There is the possibility of carcinogenic health risk by Zn with a value of 0.13. Of great concern, however, is the potential development of carcinogenic health risk with respect to Mn. Other metals do not have physical benefits to human system, and they are toxic at low levels. Therefore, proper monitoring and quality assurance protocol of the level of toxicity of heavy metals in borehole water is recommended.
Investigating the effects of visual inspection with acetic acid and cryotherapy methods on human papillomavirus infected patients at Katutura and central hospitals, Namibia.
(Namibia University of Science and Technology, 2021-11) Mbadhi, Aune N
The human papillomavirus (HPV) infests the cells of the cervix and causes cervical cancer. With an estimated 530 000 new cases per year, it is the third most frequent malignancy among women globally. In Namibia, 135 people died because of the disease in 2018. Cervical cancer is a public health issue in developing nations with significant social and economic consequences. In Human Papilloma Virus (HIV) positive women, HPV infection and persistence, as well as cervical precancerous lesions and malignancy, are more common. The Papanicolaou (Pap) smear is a cervical cancer-screening test that looks for both precancerous and cancerous cells in the cervix. Visual examination with acetic acid (VIA) and cryotherapy are becoming the favoured techniques for early identification of cervical cancer in developing nations. The Pap smear is a cervical cancer-screening test that examines the cervix and colon for precancerous and cancerous abnormalities. In Namibia, VIA and cryotherapy are rapidly replacing Pap smears. To date, however, the scale and impact of the use of these methods have not yet been investigated in Namibia. The aim of the study was to investigate how the use of VIA and Cryotherapy has impacted HPV-infected patients. Women in reproductive age group (20-49 years) visiting two Namibian hospitals (Katutura and Central Hospital) were investigated using a cross-sectional study design. The study was conducted using a mixed methodological approach. The Statistical Software Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used to analyse information gathered through questionnaires; while data received through interviews was analysed by coding and creating themes. The study highlighted the experiences of women who underwent VIA and Cryotherapy methods. The 250 women that participated in the study ranged from 25-50 years of age. One hundred and seventy-eight patients (71.2%) were in the 40-49-year-old age group. Most of the participants were from the Havana area. The great majority 188 (75.2%) were Oshiwambo speaking and 155 (62%) were single. In the study, 139 (55.6%) women were HIV positive and the remaining 111 (44.4 %) were HIV negative. Fifty-six (22.4%) patients were using family planning by injection. In this study 53, 46, 204, 135, & 158 children were respectively given birth by women of 25 to 30, 31 to 35, 36 to 40, 41 to 45, 46 to 50 aged groups. The 36-50 age 11 groups have more kids. The majority of women 151 (60.4%) with HPV infection who participated in the study have more than 3 children. Interestingly, there was an association between para gravida and HPV infection among the women who took part in the study. A family history of cancer was mentioned by up to 27.6% of the individuals. Ninety-nine (39.6%) received a Pap smear procedure with negative result in the past. Out of the 250 women, 132 (52.8%) received cryotherapy while 19 (7.6%) women had colposcopy treatments respectively.

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