THE IMPACT OF 2016/17 FALL ARMYWORM OUTBREAK ON PEARL MILLET YIELD IN NAMIBIA
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Date
2023-02
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Namibia University of Science and Technology
Abstract
Two-thirds of the population in Namibia live in rural areas of which the majority depends on smallholder crop production as means of livelihoods. The main staple food and income generating crop grown in the North and North-Eastern regions of Namibia including Kavango East region is pearl millet. Assessments conducted between mid-February and the end of April 2017 showed that approximately 356,000 hectares of crops were affected by the Fall Army Worms (FAW) infestation in seven reported Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states including Namibia. This study examined the pearl millet yield impact caused of FAW outbreak on crop harvest during 2016/2017 cropping season in Kavango East region in Namibia. The data was collected from 100 farmers from Kavango East region. ANOVA model was applied to find the significant difference between expected and actual yield of pearl millet across the three year growing-seasons. The same model was used to analyse the differences between expected and actual yields of pearl millet between growing seasons. Chi-square test was used to determine the severity of FAW outbreak on the livelihoods of farmers. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the mitigation method used by farmers to lessen the impact of the FAW. The Welch's t-test indicates that there is a highly statistically significant (p<.0000115) difference between the expected and actual yield over three years. The second test revealed that there is a statistically significant difference p<.0000114 and p<.02 respectively in terms of expected and actual yield in the 2017 and 2018 cropping seasons and no statistically significant difference in 2019 cropping season. The analysis of severity of FAW in the livelihood of farmers in terms of loss of income with chi-square test indicates that there is a statistical significance difference amongst farmers who experienced the outbreak and those who did not with P<.1.98e-72 prompting the study to reject the null hypothesis. Evidence from the study indicates that the tactics/methods adopted to contain the FAW outbreak differ significantly from one another. The findings also indicated that the FAW outbreak influenced the production of pearl millet, which influenced the yield and way of lives of farmers who heavily relied on pearl millet as a staple diet. The study recommends that Namibia's Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Land Reform inform farmers about low-cost pest control methods and urge them to diversify their cropping by thinking about other cash crops that are not or less affected by FAW. It is suggested that the aforementioned ministry create a strategy to deal with the FAW epidemics in Namibia.
Description
Thesis submitted to the Namibia University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Agribusiness Management Windhoek Namibia.
Keywords
Fall Armyworm, income, livelihood, pearl millet, production, yield, strategy
Citation
Sinalumbu, C. S. (2023). The impact of 2016/17 fall armyworm outbreak on pearl millet yield in Namibia [Unpublished masters thesi]. Winddhoek: Namibia University of Science and Technology