Ounongo Repository :: Browsing by Author "Ogbokor, Cyril A."

Browsing by Author "Ogbokor, Cyril A."

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The applicability of the short-run Phillips Curve to Namibia.
(Frontiers in Bioscience., 2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
In this research, we invoke linear and logarithmic regression models to empirically test the validity of the Short-run Phillips curve for Namibia by relying on macroeconomic time-series data running from 1991 to 2005.Our results offer some support for the presence of the phenomenon of stagflation in Namibia. This is rather contradictory to the underlying philosophy of the original Phillips curve. In the light of the outcome of the investigation anti-inflation cum unemployment measures are suggested. Further studies focussing on the applicability of the Phillips curve to the economy of Namibia is strongly recommended.
AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA
(JEL, 2017) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Meyer, Daniel
The driving objective of the study was to estimate the impact of foreign trade on economic performance using the economy of South Africa as a test site. The study contributes to the empirical literature by testing for a long-run relationship between foreign trade and economic performance in South Africa by employing quarterly data stretching from the period 1995Q1 to 2015Q4. The method of vector autoregression (VAR) was employed. Variables included in the study consisted of real GDP, exports, openness of the economy and exchange rate. The study found cointegrating relationships among the variables investigated, and that export was found to contribute more towards economic performance compared to openness of the economy and exchange rates. When it came to Granger-causality analysis, the study found a number of unidirectional relationships between the pairs of variables examined in the model. For example, it was found that economic growth granger causes exports and also openness of the economy granger causes exports. The forecast error variance decomposition suggests that economic performance itself accounted for most of the innovations that ensued during the 10-period forecast horizon employed in the analysis. Policymakers could utilize the results of this study, when it comes to policy formulation and design for the economy of South Africa. The findings of the research could be used to improve upon economic policy for South Africa and other developing countries on a similar path. The study creates opportunities for further research endeavours concerning the issue under investigation so as to unveil more evidence on the nature of the relationship between foreign trade and economic performance in the economy of South Africa.
Can Foreign Trade Propel Economic Growth in Nigeria? Evidence from Causality Analysis
(JEL, 2017) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Documented studies in the existing literature pertaining to causality relationships between foreign trade and economic growth indicators are quite enormous. This study investigates the dynamic causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Nigeria during the period extending from 1995:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The study responds to the issue of omitted variable bias by incorporating trade openness and exchange rates as control variables. The study employed the granger-causality tests to determine the causal relationship, and in particular the direction of causality among the variables examined after carrying out the stationarity, cointegration and diagnostic tests. The study found a number of distinctive unidirectional causalities running from trade openness to exports, exports to exchange rates, real GDP to exports, trade openness to exchange rates, as well as from real GDP to exchange rates. These results suggest that, to increase and sustain economic growth, Nigeria should commit huge resources to its infrastructural development, diversification strategy, incentives pertaining to the country’s manufacturing sector, trade promotion policy, as well as having in place, an effective monitoring mechanism of curbing dumping activities of multinational corporations. The study recommends that, in future studies, efforts should be made to increase the variables used in the causality model. It is also suggested that future research endeavours, should engage other causality models in the existing literature to further investigate the issue under consideration.
An econometric study of the long-run relationship between defence expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from a developing country.
(IJECM, 2015) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The high levels of financial allocations to Namibia’s defence budgets have been heavily criticised because such expenditures is considered as a leakage to the country’s economy. In light of this, the study assessed the impact of military spending on economic growth in Namibia by employing the two-step Engle-Granger approach in the context of a single equation setting. The macro-economic time-series data sets utilised stretches from 1990 to 2014. The study found co-integration relationships among the variables used, suggesting the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables used in the econometric model. Furthermore, the model used passed the stability test. However, the predictive power of the model was found to be very weak given the low value of the adjusted coefficient of determination. In addition, a unidirectional causality relationship running from economic growth to military expenditure was found implying that military spending does not promote or lead to economic growth. Therefore, the need for the government to control its expenditure on defence cannot be over stressed given the findings of the study. Concomitantly, further studies concerning the issue under examination should consider the use of quarterly data sets as against annual data sets.
Entrepreneurs' useful framework for designing, developing and preparing bankable business plan.
(2012) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
A well-written business plan is increasingly becoming a key requirement for obtaining loans from financial institutions on the part of entrepreneurs. In the light of this, the paper attempts to highlight critical issues in the process of designing, developing and preparing an acceptable business plan. Specifically, issues such as the alternative uses of a business plan, users of a business plan, the main ingredients embedded in a business plan amongst others are discussed. The paper maintains that the success of a business operation will critically depend on the nature of its business plan. Consequently, It is envisaged that knowledge gained from this paper would in turn sharpen the skills of potential entrepreneurs in various ways.
Exploring co-integration and causality relationships between government expenditure and economic performance in Namibia.
(IISTE, 2015) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
One of the heated discussions among economists nowadays relates to the efficacy of government expenditure as a tool for stimulating growth in the national economy. This research paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the possibility of a dynamic relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Namibia through the use of the two-step Engle-Granger approach. Accordingly, the study examines interactions between total government expenditure and economic growth by also including health and education as potential predictors of economic growth. The annual time-series macroeconomic secondary data-set relied upon runs from the period 1990 to 2013. The dependent variable, that is, real gross domestic product serves as a proxy to economic growth; while total public expenditure, as well as, expenditures on education and health operated in the model as predictors of economic growth. First, the study found co-integration relationships among the variables used in the study. Second, a unidirectional causality relationship running from economic growth to the health sector was observed. Further, the study found that government spending and expenditures on education and health are all weak predictors of economic growth. The lesson arising from this study would be that simply pumping a lot of financial resources into particular sectors of the economy is not a guarantee for growth. Forthcoming studies should amongst others direct attention to the type of activities that public finance is mainly used for in the health and education sectors in respect of Namibia.
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS: APPLICATION OF A DYNAMIC MODEL
(Social Sciences Research Society, 2018) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Capital movements, whether in the form of foreign direct investment or foreign portfolio investment are considered to have a positive multiplier effect on the economy. The study contributes to the empirical literature by investigating whether foreign direct investment affects economic growth using Namibia as a test centre. The study made use of vector autoregression method to examine this relationship. A quarterly data covering 1990:Q1 to 2014:Q4 was employed. The results found cointegrating relationships among the four variables that were investigated. The estimated long-run equation also suggests a positive relationship amongst the variables that have been examined in the study. Surprisingly, no evidence of causality was found pertaining to the variables assessed in the study. Moreover, real exchange rate and net foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast horizon compared to the openness index. The study concludes by crafting opportunities for further inquiries.
The impact of trade on Africa: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe.
(2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The research addresses empirically the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) using Zimbabwe as a laboratory test ground. This research work attempts to provide some evidence in this regard by examining the influence of trade on economic growth in the economy and ascertaining if the regressors utilised are good predictors of growth. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is resorted in order to estimate the specified equations used in the study. The time-series data utilized runs from 1991 to 2003. The results of the study confirm the existence of the export-led growth model in Zimbabwe. In the face of continual instability in its export receipts, we recommend that fundamental economic and political restructuring should be embarked upon in order to address and subsequently reverse the current situation that Zimbabwe finds itself. Finally, it is envisaged that the results arising from this study would be useful to the other economies of Africa, especially in their export drive.
Impacts of inflation on Namibian growth: An empirical study.
(Asian Network for Scientific Information (ANSNET), 2004) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The impact of inflation on growth performance through a case study of Namibia is analysed in the article. The methodology involves estimating a general model, which provides for capturing the impact of inflation as well as imported inflation interactively with economic openness on economic growth. The sample period runs from 1991 - 2001. The research found that economic growth reacted in a predictable fashion to changes in the regressors employed in the study. The results obtained from the study also refelects the conventional thinking in the literature that, ceteris paribus, the growth impact of inflation can be counter productive, especially if not controlled. The study recommends appropriate anti-inflationary measures for the Namibian economy. A further study on how to minimize the negative repurcussion of inflation on the economy of Namibia is highly recommended.
Impacts of trade on SADC economies: Some evidence from Angola.
(2006) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Impacts of selected macroeconomic variables on the economy of Angola are analysed in this study. Using a combination of simple and multiple regression models, we established the effect of these macroeconomic variables on the economic performance of Angola. Utilising time series data for the period 1980 to 2005, the results of the study indicate that exports undeniably play a critical role in the growth of the Angolan economy. In addition to other policy options, that were put forward, the paper recommends an outward looking industrialisation strategy for the economy of Angola, including the other Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. The direction for further research on the issue under investigation is also strongly recommended.
Investigating sources of economic growth by regression methods.
(Bethany Books, 2002) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Impacts of selected macroeconomic variables on the economy of Angola were analysed in this study. Using a combination of simple and multiple regression models, we established the effect of these macroeconomic variables on the economic performance of Angola. Utilising time series data for the period 1978 – 2000, the results of the study indicate that exports undeniably play a critical role in the growth of the Angolan economy. In addition to other policy options, that were put forward, the paper recommends an outward looking industrialisation strategy for the economy of Angola.
Investigating the challenges faced by SMEs in Namibia
(2012) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Ngeendepi, Elson J.
The main objective of the study was to establish the critical factors undermining the operations of SMEs in Namibia. In carrying out this study, we relied upon the use of two incubation centres in Namibia, namely, the Soweto and Dr. Libertina Amadhila incubation centres as laboratory test grounds. Primary data were obtained mainly from the use of questionnaires. However, observations, verbal interviews, including face-to-face interviews were also used in some ways to complement the data that was obtained from the use of questionnaires. Secondary data used were obtained from textbooks, manuals, journals and publications by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Bank of Namibia and the Namibia Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Major challenges facing SME‟s implicated by the findings of this study as undermining the smooth operations of SMEs in Namibia cut across finance, training, government regulations, crimes, infrastructures, markets as well as technology. On the some minor challenges hampering the full transition of SME into fully fledged formal business include poor infrastructure and lack of trust from the suppliers. The study concludes that in order for Namibia to realise the full potentials of its SMEs, a lot still needs to be done by the Namibian government, including the private entities.
Investigating the determinants of commercial banks credit by the business sector in Namibia: A co-integration analysis.
(IISTE, 2014) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Moses, Maria Wimbu
Economists have long recognised that several factors are usually at work, when it comes to the determinants of bank credits in modern economies. Indeed, this subject has recently been reawakened by various scholars in the context of both the developing and developed countries, and Namibia is not an exception to this discussion. This study aims at addressing two key questions. Firstly, the driving factors that push the business sector in Namibia to demand for credit facilities are identified and analysed. Secondly, the neoclassical theory that postulates that there is an inverse and significant relationship between the real interest rate and investment growth is tested for Namibia. The study relied upon co-integration and error correction procedures in carrying out the investigation. Additionally, annual time series data for the period running from 1993 to 2010 was used in the study. The key findings arising from this study are the following. Firstly, the demand for bank credit in Namibia responds more to factors other than real interest rate. Secondly, the neoclassical theory, which postulates that real interest rates have significant dampening impact on credit decisions, does not hold water in the case of Namibia. In light of these findings, specific recommendations are put forward. Finally, future direction regarding further research concerning the issue under investigation is highlighted.
Investigating the relationship between aggregate savings and investment in Namibia: A causality analysis.
(IISTE, 2014) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Musilika, Oscar Andiya
The discussion concerning the link between savings and investment in the literature is quite extensive. Most of the past studies concerning this relationship are cross-sectional in nature. The obvious difficulty with such studies is the homogeneity assumption that is usually made across the countries under investigation. Therefore, country specific studies are necessary to shed light on the savings-investment nexus. For Namibia, such studies are very scarce. In light of this, the study tried to fill this gap in some ways by attempting to investigate the causal relationship between savings and investment in Namibia using relevant econometric techniques. The evidence arising from the study suggests that, savings and investment are not co-integrated. In other words, there is no reason to suspect either a long-run or equilibrium relationship between these two variables. This could also be interpreted to imply the existence of high capital mobility. Furthermore, a unidirectional causal relationship between savings and investment in Namibia running from savings to investment was observed. In light of these results, some policy measures were put forward.
Investigating the sources of poverty in the informal settlements using Greenwell Matongo as a laboratory test ground.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Ngeendepi, Elson J.
Poverty is undoubtedly one of the main challenges facing mankind. In this study Questionnaires were designed and used to collate relevant data and subsequently analyzed. The findings of the study indicate that most informal settlement breeds poverty and the following factors were implicated as accounting for the high degree of poverty in the informal settlements: Unemployment, low literacy rate, the absence of basic infrastructures, including low income levels. The study recommends various interventionist policies that could be used to address and possibly ameliorate the magnitude of poverty currently eating deep into the Namibian society. The paper concluded by encouraging other social researchers to carry out more studies regarding the issue of poverty in Namibia.
Is Namibia's inflation import-driven? An econometric investigation.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.; Sunde, Tafirenyika
The principal objective of this study was to investigate and test the hypothesis that Namibia’s inflation is mainly driven by imports using annual macroeconomic data. The study relied heavily on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The study confirmed the results of previous studies (which used different methodologies from the current study) that inflation in Namibia is heavily import driven. The other variables that were found significant in explaining inflation in Namibia are rate of growth of GDP, broad money supply (M2), real interest rates and the real exchange rate. The main conclusion that we came to is that Namibia needs to put more emphasis in developing its manufacturing base which would ensure increased domestically produced output and less imported inflation from South Africa and the rest of the world.
Macroeconomic impact of trade on Namibian growth: An empirical illustration.
(Frontiers in Bioscience., 2005) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The study analyses the role of trade on the economy of Namibia by considering a different specification of the traditional export growth model. Foreign direct investment is included to capture the potential effect of this variable on growth. Utilising a combination of bivariate and multivariate models, the researcher estimated the relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables used for the study. Macroeconomic data used runs from 1991 to 2001. The results of the study confirm that exports and inward foreign direct investment are critical sources of growth in the Namibian economy. The study concludes by recommending, inter alia, the pursuit of an aggressive and vibrant export industrialization policy for Namibia as well as direction for further research.
Modelling the connection between foreign trade and economic growth with OLS technique: Further empirical evidence from Namibia.
(Bethany Books, 2011) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Economic growth is undoubtedly one of the most complex processes in economic literature. It is therefore quite an enormous task in an attempt to try and construct an empirical model to explain in a detail manner the growth process of any modern economy. In this study, we have tried to isolate and investigate factors that could be of use in explaining the growth process by using Namibia as a laboratory test ground. More specifically, the following explanatory variables came under scrutiny-exports, imports, balance of payments‟ accounts, inflation, including foreign direct investment. In carrying out the investigation, we relied upon a combination of bivariate and multivariate regression models. We also specified and estimated the double log transformations of the various regression equations that were used in the study in order to determine the responsiveness of changes in the regressors with respect to economic growth. Macroeconomic data utilised runs from 1990 to 2008. The results of the study confirmed that exports and foreign direct investment, including the balance of payments‟ accounts are good predictors of economic performance, while imports and inflation are leakages and could be detrimental to the entire economy, especially, it left uncontrolled over a protracted period of time. The study concludes by recommending, inter alia, the pursuit of an export-led industrialization policy for Namibia, while at the same time creating an environment that would encourage investors, especially foreign investors to 3 relocate part of their capital to Namibia. We also put forward some proposals for researchers willing to carrying out further investigation regarding the issue under discussion.
No miracles here: Trade and economic progress.
(British Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 2015) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
Indubitably, striving for greater economic growth that can lead to a general improvement in the well-being of the people constitutes one of the fundamental macroeconomic goals of all modern economies these days. In this study, the possibility of achieving economic growth through trade is investigated. The study employed the unit root test, co-integration test, pairwise Granger-causality test, and forecast error variance decomposition technique to assess the issue under focus by using Namibia as a case study. Further, the study employed quarterly macroeconomic time-series data for the period, 1992 to 2014. The VAR estimates indicate a long-run relationship among the variables investigated. Exports in particular were found to Granger cause economic growth. The forecast error variance decomposition result demonstrates that exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth compared to exchange rate during the chosen time horizon. The study also found that consistently, economic growth itself accounted for a lion share of the innovations that occurred over the selected time horizon. The important message to policymakers in Namibia from the outcome of the study is that the promotion of exports should constitute a crucial part of a country’s macroeconomic policies in order to accelerate economic growth.
Oil and economic growth: An econometric analysis.
(Bethany Books, 2001) Ogbokor, Cyril A.
The study focuses specifically on the effect of oil exports, non-oil exports and foreign capital inflow on Nigeria‟s economic growth performance. Using the OLSQ regression technique, we generated the relationship between the variables identified above. Relying on selected macroeconomic data for the period 1980 – 2000, the results of the study provides empirical evidence to reinforce the claim that oil exports have contributed more significantly to the growth of the Nigerian economy vis-à-vis other variables that were analysed. The paper recommends, as part of Nigeria‟s strategy for achieving rapid and sustainable economic „miracle‟ the aggressive pursuit of an export-led industrialisation policy

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