Determination of vulnerability of food systems to price and climatic shocks in SACU countries: Case of Namibia, Botswana and South Africa.
| dc.contributor.author | Musarurwa, God’spower | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-08-29T12:46:14Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-08-29T12:46:14Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
| dc.description | Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Agribusiness Management at the Namibia University of Science and Technology | |
| dc.description.abstract | Despite widespread poverty and hunger, there is on-going chronic food and nutrition insecurity throughout Africa. Disruptions in food systems are the result of a combination of long-running conflicts, economic stagnation, price shocks, catastrophic weather occurrences and the degradation of livelihoods and family-based support structures. This research determines vulnerability of food systems to price and climatic shocks in three SACU countries namely Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. The study's specific objectives encompass assessing the influence of rainfall volatility and inflation on food production, exploring the variables shaping the food security model and comparing vulnerability indices across the three countries. The dataset comprises key indicators such as the food production index, inflation, food imports, precipitation, crop production index and livestock production index. The analysis employs Stata to examine time-series data spanning from 2000 to 2022. For the first two objectives, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed to examine the causality of variables leading to food system vulnerability. The findings revealed that inflation affects food production in both the short and long run in Namibia, Botswana and South Africa, along with similar impacts of rainfall volatility in Namibia and Botswana. However, rainfall volatility in South Africa does not exhibit a short-run effect on food production. For the second objective, certain variables, particularly the crop production index and livestock production index, emerge as crucial in shaping the food security model across the three countries. Inflation and rainfall volatility affect these variables, thereby influencing overall food production and food security. In addressing the third objective, principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to compare vulnerability indices. The PCA results showed that Botswana has a significant percentage of its vulnerability index classified as "most vulnerable." This suggests that major risks and challenges related to the causes of food insecurity are present in Botswana. According to this vulnerability index, the population of Botswana is far more likely than those in Namibia and South Africa to experience food insecurity. These findings support the preceding explanation in this study that food insecurity is far more prevalent in Botswana than it is in Namibia and South Africa, according to recent statistics. Recommendations stemming from the study include the implementation of climate-resilient agricultural practices, policy harmonisation to address inflation and climatic shocks, and improved access to financing and financial services for small-scale farmers. These findings contribute valuable understanding for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance food system resilience in the face of price and climatic challenges. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Musarurwa, G. (2023). Determination of vulnerability of food systems to price and climatic shocks in SACU countries: Case of Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. (Unpublished master's thesis). Namibia University of Science and Technology. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10628/1023 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Namibia University of Science and Technology. | |
| dc.subject | Food systems | |
| dc.subject | Vulnerability | |
| dc.subject | Inflationary pressures | |
| dc.subject | Rainfall volatility | |
| dc.subject | Food security model | |
| dc.title | Determination of vulnerability of food systems to price and climatic shocks in SACU countries: Case of Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. | |
| dc.type | Thesis |