Investigating factors affecting the effectiveness of an agricultural input subsidy programme on household crop production: a case study of Oshikoto Region, Namibia

Abstract

Agricultural input subsidies are widely promoted in low- and middle-income countries as a mechanism to improve productivity, strengthen food security, and support rural livelihoods. Yet, their long-term effectiveness remains contested, particularly regarding targeting efficiency, sustainability, and measurable returns on investment. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the seed and fertiliser input subsidy programme in Namibia’s Oshikoto Region, focusing on smallholder producers of mahangu (pearl millet) and maize. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted with 395 farming households drawn from four constituencies: Okankolo, Onayena, Onyaanya, and Olukonda. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses revealed that access to subsidies varied significantly across constituencies, influenced by factors such as education level, farm size, and distribution inefficiencies (χ² = 18.219; p = 0.001). Yields from subsidised fields were consistently higher, with fertiliser-supported farms averaging 774 kg/ha compared to 632.5 kg/ha for non-subsidised fields. Training was found to strengthen the effective use of inputs (χ² = 42.51; p = 0.001), although it did not significantly affect seed purchase decisions (p = 0.375). Regression results confirmed a positive association between fertiliser subsidies and yields for both crops, though explanatory power was modest. Farmers’ perceptions of the programme were generally neutral, with satisfaction varying across education levels (p = 0.0012). Key challenges identified included inadequate training, insufficient awareness of programme guidelines, and limited availability of inputs. The findings suggest that while subsidies can improve productivity in the short term, their overall effectiveness is constrained by design and implementation challenges. Strengthening distribution systems, improving farmer training, and aligning subsidies with local production needs could enhance their impact. These results provide valuable evidence for policymakers seeking to optimise input subsidy programmes to support household food security and agricultural development in Namibia and comparable contexts.