Assessment of farmers' perceptions and the economic impact of climate change in Namibia: Case study on small scale irrigation farmers (SSIFs) of Ndonga Linena Irrigation Project.

Abstract

This paper examines perceptions of small-scale irrigation farmers (SSIFs) with regard to climate change and their adaptation strategies in terms of its effects. The The Multinomial Logit (MNL) and the Trade-Off Analysis models were applied. Farm-level data was collected from the entire population of 30 SSIFs at the Ndonga Linena Irrigation Project in February 2014. Results from the MNL reveal that the gender, age and farming experience and extension services, yield and mean rainfall shift, are significant and positively related to the level of the farmers' diversification strategies. Trade-off analysis for multi-dimensional impact assessment (TOA_MD) model results project that climate change will have a negative economic effect on farmers, with 17.5, 25.95, 41.15 and 3.76% of farmers set to gain from climate change across 20, 30, 40 and 50% physical yield reduction scenarios respectively. Farm net return and per capita income are also expected to decline across all scenarios in future, while the poverty level is expected to rise. This study will have certain policy implications in terms of safeguarding the farmers' limited productive assets. Policy should target diversification.